Quick: Which of the two Super Bowl teams is more likely to forgo a high-percentage chip-shot field goal, choosing instead to go for it on 4th and short?
Why, the chippy and smash-mouth Arizona Cardinals, of course…
(We’re kinda freaked out by the answer too.)
We were trying to convince ourselves that betting No (-185) on the prop “Will both teams score a field goal of 33+ yards” was a good deal. Already hampered by small sample sizes (2008 only), it’s a better idea to look at when (and why) the teams opted not to kick.
After the jump: Find out how the Steelers stunk it up on 4th down in 2008. Learn which kind of knife Todd Haley most enjoys driving into people’s hearts. And discover whether or not we talk ourselves into dropping a whole unit on this stupid prop once we discover Pinnacle’s offering it for -179. (Hint: Oh yeah!)
Talk about small sample sizes: Arizona is listed as having 17 fourth-down attempts this regular and post season. The Steelers, 14. And if you scratch at the surface of those 31 plays, things fall apart pretty quick.
For the Cardinals:
- 8 of those 4th downs occurred in the four games in which they were trailing by 21 (or more).1
- One was a knee to run out the clock at the end of their week one victory.
That leaves 8 plays in which they could have kicked, but chose instead to extend the drive. In 7 of those instances they had the lead, often going for it even before the fourth quarter. Look at their failed 4th-1 on the St. Louis 1 yard line on their opening drive (week 9). Or (week 10) down 8 against the 49ers, midway through the 3rd, they go for a 4th-1 from the opposing 5. And during their clinic on the Bills (week 5) they pushed to go on fourth and short twice in the 4th quarter.
Their 5-2 conversion rate here is meaningless (for our purposes, anyway). What’s important is that they had both the lead and an 85%+ chance of making the kick in all but two of those plays. And if you need any more evidence of Haley’s propensity to prevent Neil Rackers from putting foot to ball, go back to week 8 (vs. Carolina) and look at his decision to fake a field goal on 4th and 14 (!) at the end of the first half (already up a touchdown) — eschewing a 38-yard attempt.
The Steelers have an even smaller number to examine (14). In our mind’s eye, we see the Steelers as the team mostly likely to shove it down your throat on 4th and 1 anywhere past their own 40, right? Mike Tomlin just shoots that glare onto the field and, like the Cowher before him, the team goes no huddle and runs a pass to Heath Miller in the flat or a run up the middle by Mewelde Moore for the first down. That’s what happens, isn’t it?
Not really. Of their 14 tries:
- 3 were actually botched punt snaps (including the classic Harrison safety against the Giants).
- Another one of those tries doesn’t really actually exist.2
- Five (5) of them were called in end-of-game desperation situations (1-4 on those).
- Another (week 2) was an attempt to kill the game clock a few more seconds.
- And one more was a punt fake (vs. SD in the Divisionals).
That leaves only 3 attempts made on 4th down with the intent to “keep the drive alive” (weeks 2, 11 & 12). All of them came late in the 1st/early in the second quarter; they were tied or trailing by a score; each was 4th and 1 to go.
And while the lack of Pittsburgh attempts on fourth down isn’t encouraging towards making that prop bet,3 it’s worth noting that the Steelers are exactly average in the league for field goals attempted and made. (And Arizona slightly below that.)
Ok, we’ve seen enough. And now that Pinny’s dropped it to -174 we feel obliged to put 1.8 on it.
That way when Jeff Reed’s game-winning, record-breaking4 56-yard field goal wins the game as time expires, it will make these 1000+ words on the subject that much tastier.
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- That snowy day in New England, for example, saw the Cards entering fourth down territory as early as mid-third quarter. Down that many points, kicking field goals is not an option (and not a good situation to analyze offensive tendencies). ↩
- It’s awkward finding errors in places you had come to believe were accurate. NFL game books look all official in their PDF form. But we should have known. Anyway, the box score of week 8 vs. NYG shows 0/4 on 4th down attempts. We count only 3 attempts, and that’s counting the Harrison over snap for a safety. So there Steeler fans: You’re 3-13 this season on 4th downs, not 3-14! ↩
- The reason we’re talking about this remember? Maybe we should wrap up… ↩
- The previous record will be a 55-yard field goal made by Neil Rackers in the first half of the same game. Rackers’ kick will break the previous record set by Steve Christie 15 years prior. ↩
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