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Feb 01 2009

Jersey Prop

Posted by DalkeGeedz in Gambling, NFL

The following post may contain material that is not suitable for all readers.

Both ordinal and nominal data will be shown in various stages of undress and in suggestive positions.

After the jump, we drink enough to make a wager on the Super Bowl 1st to score a touchdown prop.

Growing weary of waiting for the price on the Steelers to drop enough for most contrarians to bite,1 we started looking at touchdowns. Specifically, the props concerning which player will score the first.

That calls for a table:

Player T JN Y1st N1st Tot Odds Raw% Adj1 Adj2 Real RealAdj
635 No TD Scored N 0 0 5000 1.96% 1.48% 0.00%
634 Field N 0 0 534 15.77% 11.94% 0.00%
B. Leftwich V 4 1 0.93% 1.06%
615 B Roethlisberger V 7 1 0 2 2705 3.57% 2.70% 3.12% 1.87% 2.11%
629 S Holmes V 10 2 4 7 1004 9.06% 6.86% 7.92% 6.54% 7.40%
624 L Fitzgerald H 11 3 3 17 670 12.99% 9.83% 11.35% 15.89% 14.38%
623 K Warner H 13 0 5000 1.96% 1.48% 1.71% 0.00% 0.00%
626 L Sweed V 14 0 4921 1.99% 1.51% 1.74% 0.00% 0.00%
630 S Breaston H 15 3 1694 5.57% 4.22% 4.87% 2.80% 2.54%
627 M Moore V 21 3 0 6 2806 3.44% 2.60% 3.01% 5.61% 6.34%
A. Rolle H 21 0 1 2 1.87% 1.69%
T. Carter V 23 1 0.93% 1.06%
D. Townsend V 26 1 0.93% 1.06%
R. Hood H 26 1 0.93% 0.85%
622 JJ Arrington H 28 2 0 3 3827 2.55% 1.93% 2.23% 2.80% 2.54%
D. Rodgers-Cromartie H 29 1 0.93% 0.85%
617 E James H 32 0 1 4 1694 5.57% 4.22% 4.87% 3.74% 3.38%
618 G Russell V 33 4 1384 6.74% 5.10% 5.89% 3.74% 4.23%
631 T Hightower H 34 1 2 13 1943 4.89% 3.70% 4.28% 12.15% 10.99%
616 C Davis V 38 0 5000 1.96% 1.48% 1.71% 0.00% 0.00%
633 W Parker V 39 2 0 7 648 13.37% 10.12% 11.69% 6.54% 7.40%
632 T Polamalu V 43 1 5000 1.96% 1.48% 1.71% 0.93% 1.06%
M. Beisel H 52 1 0.93% 0.85%
L. Woodley V 56 1 0.93% 1.06%
613 A Boldin H 81 2 2 12 999 9.10% 6.89% 7.95% 11.21% 10.15%
625 L Pope H 82 0 3827 2.55% 1.93% 2.23% 0.00% 0.00%
619 H Miller V 83 0 3 4 1062 8.61% 6.51% 7.52% 3.74% 4.23%
628 N Washington V 85 3 2208 4.33% 3.28% 3.79% 2.80% 3.17%
621 J Urban H 85 0 2 4 4667 2.10% 1.59% 1.83% 3.74% 3.38%
620 H Ward V 86 1 0 7 887 10.13% 7.67% 8.86% 6.54% 7.40%
614 B Patrick H 89 0 5000 1.96% 1.48% 1.71% 0.00% 0.00%
D. Dockett H 90 1 0.93% 0.85%

Key:

T = Team (Visitors=Steelers; Home=Cardinals)

JN = Jersey Number

Y1st = # of 1st TDs in game scored

N1st = # of 1st TDs of team scored (1st TD scored by team, but not the first TD scored in that game)

Tot = Total touchdowns (2008-09)

Odds = Pinnacle odds of 1st player to score

Adj1 = Pinnacle odds converted to percentage

Adj2 = Pinnacle odds converted to % with field/no TD eliminated

Real = Percentile based on actual TDs scored

RealAdj = Percentile adjusted for PIT-ARZ TD scored-allowed ratio

(Whew.)

We’ve spent the better part of the week with these odds.  At first we wanted to place an Under bet on the jersey # of the first player to score a touchdown.  It’s posted at BetUS and Sportsbook.com, but we couldn’t find it elsewhere.  Even at -115, the under seemed to have an edge of up to 60%, largely thanks to Hightower and Fitzgerald’s high touchdown numbers. (And that their jersey numbers are 34 & 11, not usual for wideouts.)  We would’ve blown a whole unit, but can’t find a suitable suitor.

That said, both Tim Hightower and Larry Fitzgerald are the standouts for being undervalued against their numbers.  (Whereas Willie Parker seems to be overvalued.)

While we’d like to get into further explanation, we’re about three drinks in and have a football game to play in an hour.  And so we just tossed two half units on each.

Enjoy the game…

  1. And who expected the public to be leaning to the Cardinals? ↩
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This entry was posted on Sunday, February 1st, 2009 at 10:47 am and is filed under Gambling, NFL. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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