First things first: Brian Cushing will apparently kick Rey Maualuga’s butt. We’re still waiting to see whether he will top off this ass kicking with a guttural war cry defending the honor of Erin Andrews.

Now, Brian, Add About 15 Pounds & Get Pressin'

Rey Maualuga, lest you forgot, gained a couple of infamy units back in January when he got jiggy wid ESPN sideline princess Erin Andrews on his way to the locker (unbeknownst to her at the time). America swiftly admonished Maualuga, who later apologized as though he had inadvertantly triggered a third-world genocide.

But the backlash continues.

Posted as a prop bet in the 225 lbs. bench press at this year’s NFL Combine, Maualuga¹ will compare reps with Brian Cushing. Odds for this event opened with Cushing at +170 and Maualuga at -220.

Somebody must have some serious hopes for Cushing’s ability to press since his number has now moved to +140. (Maualuga’s has dropped to -180.)

And We Will Give Thee Every One of Us 1100 Shekels of Silver

The only other lines moves are some generic ones for QB 40 times and vertical jumps. (Not surprisingly the line moves indicate that the betting public favors a QB to run a 40 time faster than 4.53s and jump a vertical higher than 32½ inches. Good luck with that one, Public!)

We’re not recommending any action here. The vig is horrible and the book is play at your own risk. (Sportsbook.com in this case.)² And we have no idea if this line move was motivated by smart money, Erin Andrews,³ someone in the USC locker room, or that Maualuga is cited at 37 bench reps for a personal best while Cushing is listed at 35.⁴ With a difference of only two, maybe someone thought Cushing was a value at +170.

The Combine begins today. Media whoring begins in earnest tomorrow. Cushing and Maualuga will be evaluated on Saturday.

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6.34 Seconds of Panic

Ever since the NFL Network thought it good TV to air Rich Eisen running a 6.34-second 40 time in a pair of wingtips, well, it was only a matter of time before some sports book would start making offers on the combine.

Sportsbook.com is now posting odds on the upcoming NFL Scouting Combine, this Wednesday (18 February) in Indianapolis.

The props are on quantifiable events: the 40-yard dash, number of bench presses and height of vertical jump.  (What?!? No odds on the Cybex test?)

Think some juiced-out wannabe pro linebacker can bench 225 lbs. more than 39½ times?  Believe some prospective wide-out can break a 40 time of 4.32? If you’re willing to pay for a 15¢ line, then it’s all yours to bet. (That is, if you have a balance with Sportsbook.com — which we don’t, and can’t condone.)

These odds do seem fair — meaning there are no glaringly absurd lines, like over-under the number of times Deion will ask a prospect “how he feels”¹ — so there’s a decent chance these might get carried by other books. (The only real mismatch is the fastest 40 time between Missouri’s 5′ 10″, 234 lbs. QB Chase Daniel  [+350] vs. West Virginia’s 6′ 1″, 192 lbs. QB Pat White [-600]. Otherwise they’re evenly paired.)

Both Offensive Linemen are Expected to Complete the 40-yard Dash

The most intriguing wager on this card (and easily the most exciting foot race since the Krispy Kreme Challenge) is the fastest 40 between Alabama’s 6′ 4″ 330 lbs. Andre Smith and Oklahoma’s 6′ 5″ 335 lbs. Duke Robinson.²  Come on gentlemen, there’s light refreshments and an O₂ tank being served at the finish line!

Photo credit: NFL Draft Dog

[NFL Combine Odds Go Live — Covers]

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Found this at VegasInsider.com’s NFL odds page:

Serious Underlay?

Could it be? Had a nitrous oxide pipe burst in the LVSC offices?  Had Ken White & crew had lost their foolish minds — opening the Cards as one-point dogs!?!

Did you miss your chance to back up the truck on the Steelers as single-point chalk?  Yeah, same here. So we asked VI about it. Five-star customer rep Dan promptly explained:

Back just a couple of days before Christmas, the lines makers at Station sports book in Vegas — acting, in all likelihood, under the influence of Office Nog — thought it clever to post a Super Bowl line before Week 17 even kicked off.  They set it at AFC -1/NFC +1. And though that line went off the board before the next set of games, it was the first to use the Super Bowl’s rotation number, and so the computer interpreted that as LVSC’s opening line.¹

Since then, the Vegas Hilton, Station and the LVSC sporadically posted Super Bowl lines in between playoff games. The AFC is always the chalk, and they spot the NFC champ as many as 3½ points (just this past Sunday before the games).

In this week’s pre-week news cycle hype fest, blog entries and news wire stories have banged out copy about how Vegas already has a line for the Super Bowl! Only during the Super Bowl is the national press exonerated for making an opening point spread its own story. But this kind of January skite is still good PR. Without it, grandma wouldn’t know how to give points.

Bettors who do obsess over lines are aware of how promptly books set odds once the teams’ previous games are done. Or, in this case, well before that.

The opening line for the Superbowl really came out shortly after the wild-card weekend. Eight teams left standing meant 16 possible combinations of opponents. And speculation began there.² Take the LVSC power rating and adjust for the situation and come up with 16 different Super Bowl lines. Beyond lines makers and their most eager customers, very few people care about those other 15 hypothetical Super Bowl lines.³

Now when it did come time to set The Number, the lines makers couldn’t get them up fast enough.

At 10:00PM (EST), the Las Vegas Sports Consultants issued their opening line:

Again. Ten o’clock eastern time.

It’s a bit hazy, but we’re pretty certain that at 10:00PM (EST), it was late in the fourth quarter — somewhere in between the time Troy Polamalu picked Joe Flacco for six, and Willis McGahee’s eleventh-hour winning bid for Hit of the Year.

In other words, LVSC posted their line with 3:39 still on the game clock.⁴

Two minutes later (10:02PM, McGahee still napping), The Greek opened a -270 money line. Two minutes after that, Pinnacle posted -7 (+102). By the time the gun was fired on the AFC Championship at 10:18, the overwhelming majority of Vegas outlets were offering a number. Many off-shores would follow suit within seconds.

Does that matter? Not to Grandma.

She says her local has 6½. She wants to take the Cards, but is afraid of getting screwed by a touchdown. Now, her guy tells her he normally sells the half point at 20 cents coming off key numbers, but since she’s a senior, he’s willing to do it for 15. She also likes the over…

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Lost in the exhaustive coverage of Sunday’s final-play derby was a story buried deeper than Matt Cassel under a mountain of Charger man fat. That is, the Patriots’ motivation to call a moot play with only two seconds left in Sunday night’s game against the Chargers.

At the merciful end, few were still watching. Patriot side money died late in the first half. TV ratings plunged minutes into the third quarter as the Chargers forced a turnover on downs at their own one. And shortly thereafter, Matt Cassel’s heart was actually ripped out of his rib cage by Quentin Jammer.¹

These double-stitch sleeves don't buy themselves

Despite this, Cassel (and not his backup) was immolated to the two-minute drill trailing by THREE scores. Now, to be fair, Cassel certainly still looked like he could benefit even from garbage-time work. And against a now loose prevent defense, he slung seven passes in sixty-some seconds — the last one caught at the 12 yard line by a rookie back unable to get out of bounds.

But wait! Bill Belichick called for a timeout with just :02 left. (Remember, the Patriots are still trailing by THREE scores.) Television commentator John Madden expressed confusion on why the Patriots would even bother with another play, as host Al Michaels coyly referred to the few people still watching the game with “great interest”. Cassel threw an errant corner pass which fell short — game over.

Now this is old news to anyone who bet the total. The over-under on the game ranged from 44-45½. And judging from data provided by Wager Line and Sports Insights, the action on this wager was typical for a prime-time nationally-televised game: above-average betting amounts with a heavy public thirst for the over — about 65-70%.

And while exact figures are the private business of the sports book managers, it is certain that the “few people” to whom Al Michaels referred were actually several hundred bettors with many thousands of dollars on the outcome of this spurious back-door play.

Understandably, the Boston and blog media were overwrought with more important story lines to pursue than Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels’ motivation to try for a touchdown over taking a knee.² But if (hypothetically speaking) on that play, Matt Cassel’s clavicle was snapped like a dry autumn twig, then this event would have come under enormous, delicious scrutiny.

Were the Patriots hedging that “best net points in common games” would be the eventual wild-card tiebreaker? Was McDaniels giving Cassel a chance to improve the team’s miserable DVOA numbers on the day? Did Ernie Adams demand the effort in order to improve the team’s Pythagorean wins?

No answers are forthcoming. The only injury on the play was to the squares who bet the over. And jokes about Bill Belichick are still welcome in sports books around the world.³

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